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Posts Tagged ‘sell platinum’

With gold breaking the $1,000 barrier, silver riding at a ten-year high and precious metals up across the board, the question has to be asked – is it now time to sell platinum?

Between 1992 and 1999, platinum languished around the 0 per ounce mark but with the advent of the new millennium, platinum commenced its inexorable rise, initially due to demand in the electronics sector we all wanted to get in on the internet bubble which in turn fuelled PC and laptop demand, and as that bubble burst in 2001, so did the price of platinum. Then the warning bells sounded over economic performance and from the 0 level in January 2001, platinum peaked at almost ,200 in early 2008 and drastically fell back to 0 by the end of the year – Obama was elected and a 0 billion stimulus plan from the US alone was promised as an injection into the economy, primarily the banking sector.

This directly led to the huge drop in platinum prices seen in the opening days of 2009 – such a capital injection from the US taxpayer was almost unprecedented and more than this, taxpayers around the world in developed countries were finding similarly large amounts of taxpayer cash was being pumped into the global financial system to keep the global economy afloat. He initial reaction of metal speculators, particularly those looking at platinum and precious metals as a safe haven in the very harsh economy, suddenly saw some light at the end of the tunnel – demand for platinum dropped and dropped like the proverbial rock.

Since this platinum crash, the spot price has steadily recovered to where it is now (September 2009) trading at around the $1,250 mark – a far cry from the dizzying heights of $2,200 but nevertheless a remarkable recovery from the low of $800.

The burning issue is whether the price is going to recover further – and that really depends on your view as to whether the economy is going to turn the corner and recovery commences or not. It will depend on stock and bond market peformance – if they recover, the professional investor will drop his precious metal holdings and liquidate to invest in order to take advantage of the market recovery. A close eye needs to be kept on earnings and profit performances and especially whether they are coming at the level of, or better than analyst expectations.

A good guide is the hedge fund market – where many have laid the blame for the current economic malaise. For the year to date, the KDY-index has returned in excess of 17% from the basket of hedge funds it tracks – that’s good news for those looking for super-bonuses and for those looking for recovery.

It is very bad news for those looking for future platinum value increases and signals that the time to sell has definitely arrived – for further proof, look at how the value of platinum has hit a plateau and is rebounding off the ,200 price ceiling – speculators and traders simply don’t know which way they should be going and are waiting and watching to see what will happen next – the current round of earnings results in Wall Street are primarily positive.

Platinum is not going higher – sell.

Palladium, like many other precious metals, has been enjoying excellent growth in value since the financial crisis as savvy professional investors moved out of stocks and bonds, which were taking a swan dive, and into assets such as gold, silver, platinum and of course, palladium. These metals are used as a hedge against inflation and a weak dollar, especailly in difficult economic times.

At the onset of the recession the value of palladium leapt with double-digit growth, but the summer months of 2009 demonstrated a wavering in the price of many metals - including palladium.

Platinum is bouncing underneath the $1,200 per ounce mark, gold is volatile, silver is hanging and palladium is stuck around $290 per ounce.

More disconcerting for metal speculators is that trading volumes are thin – the market is still and doesn’t seem to know which way to move.

Mixed economic signals create uncertainty, though some pundits feel the economy was saved by Obama's 0 billion stimulus plan. After the hype came the realization the crisis was a lot worse than thought, and maybe, $700 billion was not going to be anywhere near enough –especially when overseas governments were pumping similarly large sums of taxpayer cash into the banking system and still it seemed the financial system still looked to be on the verge of collapse.

The housing sector saw an improvement in August 2009 and September was on target as reported by banks and retailers. Positive signs demonstrating some recovery or at least stabilization, but at the same time the dollar has continued to weaken against foreign currencies signifying a relatively poor performance against overseas markets and especially by those holding America’s debt (China especially).

The fundamental question is whether stock and bond market performance is going to convince investors to return – if they do, those holding precious metals are going to liquidate to get back into those markets in anticipation of enjoying the returns recovery will bring. The metal price will drop like a rock (just look at platinum prices falling from $2,200 to the $1,200 mark in the last quarter of 2008) and those holding palladium, gold, silver or platinum are going to feel very bad indeed that they didn’t take the opportunity to sell when the price was this high.

For those with small holdings of palladium, especially the private individual who may have the metal tied up in family jewelry, now is the time to sell. The risk of a price crash in precious metals, including palladium, outweighs the prospect of a future return. The return of financial stock market performance heralds recovery and that means the end of the precious metals bull market which is why the metals market has stalled now.

With so many outlets for convenient selling of old gold, silver, platinum and palladium it makes a great deal of rational economic sense as well as simple commonsense to take the profit that has been created by the recession and turn useless jewelry gathering dust into cold hard cash to pay off debts or to get ready to invest in the stock markets.